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CAD/JPY and USD/CAD analysis

Besides our existing bearish bias on JPY pairs (bullish on JPY); today's tweet1 and tweet2 create uncertainty about US-China trade deal which makes JPY (the save haven) even more bullish/stronger.


Our USD/CAD scenario already shows that we've recently been bearish in CAD. CAD resumed its fall/rise in USD/CAD after a minor downward retracement at USD/CAD. Since we are bearish in USD/JPY, we have now preferred to sell CAD/JPY instead of buying USD/CAD. However, we may tomorrow close CAD/JPY and enter buy in USD/CAD if FOMC will be hawkish.

Alternative idea: half trade (a sell in CAD/JPY) and half trade (a buy in USD/CAD) can be done together.


Basically we have to sell CAD again and we should sell it against the strongest one. If you have read my comment on USD/CHF, you know that I have closed re-entered sell of USD/CHF today; which means that I am no longer considering CHF strong. Therefore, re-entered sell of CAD/CHF trade (view its comment) has also been closed at BE. Hhence we had to find another strong currency against which we could resume selling CAD.


Here is what I see on CAD/JPY charts.

On H4 time-frame: A 3 drive look alike pattern is under construction:



On daily/D1 time-frame:

ABCD100.0 is our minimum target/TP. All other targets such as 3-drive completion point (80.368), FIB61.8 of the whole swing up (81.233) and abcd100.0 are beyond it.

Set SL above yesterday's high/point c.




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