AUD/USD analysis | Dec 4, 2019

Fundamental: Trump said that he will probably be looking for a trade deal with China after election. This is bad news for AUD as it behaves like proxy currency of China.

Quarterly GDP from Australia came 0.1% less than forecast, although revision was 0.1% better. Anyway, it is not positive.

There is high probability of ABCD retracement on 1H time-frame. Even if AUD is gonna continue uptrend, this garley doesn't contradict with further continuation to uptrend. It may first form the gartley and then may continue to upside but it depends on upcoming fundamental factors. As of now, downward move seems eminent and gartley is more likely to be completed.

It had gone up to Fib 61.8% level of downswing on D1 and then started moving down, which makes a good technical scenario.

Risk: close the position in loss if D1 closes above yesterday's high.