EUR/USD for Monday and for long run.
- KeonConsultancy.com
- Aug 26, 2019
- 1 min read
Hu Xijin 胡锡进 tweeted:
✔
@HuXijin_GT
Based on what I know, Chinese and US top negotiators didn't hold phone talks in recent days. The two sides have been keeping contact at technical level, it doesn't have significance that President Trump suggested. China didn't change its position. China won't cave to US pressure.
Anand (at 6:36 AM NY time, Monday): This tweet is in so harmony with Technical analysis. EUR/USD made a upswing on Friday, retraced today downward because of "calm negotiation thing" and gave an entry point at 1.118 (mid of WPP1.116 and FIB 38.2 of upswing on 1H i.e. 1.1120). Now this news will help to boos trade war and USD will weakens again, E/U will achieve target price 1.1180-90 i.e. WPP-FIB 61.8 Exp. on 4H.
Anand (at Londan starts): My buy limit was set at 1.1118 which is mid of FIB 38.2 (1.1120) and WPP (1.1116). My buy limit got filled in very first 1H candle of London session.
Anand (in weekend:) Trump increased tax by 5% on Chinese goods and this trade war situation weighed on $ in this weekend, price in XE already hovering around 1.12 and pretty stable above 1.1160
Therefore, I believe that market is gonna open with gap above 1160. Then I will seek for downward retracement for go long in short term to target FIB 61.8 exp. at 4H which also co-incodes with WPP, 1.1180-1188 area. And then I may enter short if I find any bearish candle pattern at 1H.
Despite comments of ECB's Lagarde, EUR/USD didn't accelerate downward like it had done upward on Friday. Having looked at very slow downward move, I had already written that upward bounce can be triggered by any news. Then comes Klaas Knot of ECB whose tweets helped EUR bounce up. It erased all downward move made after US prelim GDP and Lagarde's comments. Therefore, we will look at closure of 4H candle. Let's see where 4H candle closes, above or below mid line of rectangle shown in one of my previous comments. Holding onto it till then.
Keon:
Holding buy of EUR/USD. Set SL 10 pips below the price of EUR/USD 5 minutes prior to release of US prelim GDP.
This was the rectangle on 4H of EU that I talked about in my previous comment.
The risk: If price comes below FIB 78.6 of the whole move up since Friday, we will close in loss because this area is also below mid line. If we draw a rectangle on previous sideways move on EU and then draw a mid line. If price goes back in sideways range and stays beyond mid line against direction of breakout, it shows weakness and price will less likely to continue in direction of breakout.
EUR/USD opened at 1.1149, not with a gap above 1.1160 but it went above 1.1160 to 1.1163 right after opening, so the scenario I have explained is valid for the trade.