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NZD/USD analysis | Nov 11, 2019

As per risk part of my previous analysis, NZD has technically turned bearish because the 3-drive has been fully validated as price broke below previous swing low.

We can target next support that is FIB61.8 of the whole swing up. Set TP 2.0 pips + spread above FIB61.8.


Risk: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and statement is due to release at 8 p.m. EST, Nov 12 ( 2 p.m. NZ time, Nov 13). 60% of analysts all over the globe are expecting a rate cut to 0.75% but 40% analysts including Westpac are expecting no rate cut and similar statement to that of Sep 25.

This uncertainty led NZD to a new low in last week and may continue to weigh on it more because professional traders sell during uncertainty.

Nevertheless, profit taking from sell positions ahead of the news may push NZ a bit higher; therefore current sell position has tight stop and we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +15.0 pips floating.

5 comments

5 Comments


Keon Consultancy
Keon Consultancy
Nov 13, 2019

RBNZ didn't cut OCR. NZD soars 85.0 pips in minutes. It was a good move to close sell position in profit ahead of RBNZ decision. We will try to understand future OCR from RBNZ Press Conference due after an hour.

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Anand Dubey
Anand Dubey
Nov 12, 2019

Ahead of RBNZ decision, closed sell trade with +25.0 pips at closure of London session.

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Anand Dubey
Anand Dubey
Nov 12, 2019

Probability of OCR cut by RBNZ increased as Westpac changed outlook from no cut to cut.


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Westpac Now Sees RBNZ Cutting Cash Rate Tomorrow (Previously Saw Cash Rate Being Held At 1%) $NZDUSD

-Cites The Inflation Expectations Drop For The Rationale For Changing Their Call On Tomorrow’s OCR Decision


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Anand Dubey
Anand Dubey
Nov 11, 2019

Removed SL and won't set SL until after 6 p.m. EST because widened spreads may touch SL in slow market hours, 3:30 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. EST.

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Anand Dubey
Anand Dubey
Nov 11, 2019

Update: we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +15.0 pips floating.

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