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Updated: Nov 9, 2019


All gain in AUD/USD caused by J. Powell on Friday was erased in the very next 1H candle on Friday wheres other currencies like CHF, EUR etc. had gained well and had kept their gain against $ on Friday.

Meanwhile safe haven currency JPY has been strong against all others for many months.

Therefore a sell in AUD/JPY targeting Fib 61.8 retrcement of whole upward retracement swing on 1H is not a bad idea.

Nevertheless, this is an aggressive entry right after upward ABCD wheres this is not AB is = CD, the CD is just approx 127.2 of BC. But such weaker ABCD retracement against major move is more favorable for continuation of trend of major move.

A/J has failed to stay above 50-level of RSI, which also supports the idea of downward move. The gap caused by Monday opening has already been filled so it doesn't contradict with downward move.

The risk: A/J will be closed in loss if it continues upward and erases whole swing down formed after J Powell spoke.

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