USD/CAD analysis | Nov 20, 2019
It made a mathematically perfect 3 drive. If you measure distances, you will find that 2nd drive is precisely 161.8% of 1st retracement and 3rd drive is precisely 161.8% of 2nd retracement.
Only glitch is 2nd drive whose speed is not harmonic with 1st & 3rd drive.
ABCD expansion 127.2 coincides with top of last drive, which makes it a significant resistance. From this point, USD/CAD started falling slowly and we entered sell.
Minimum target of 3 drive pattern is to erase the last drive. Nonetheless, we are not targeting bottom of 3rd drive.
If you look at retracements, it seems that a 3rd harmonic retracement may take place. Nonetheless, we are not targeting bottom of probable 3rd retracement either.
We are just targeting FIB38.2 retracement level of last drive with SL above today's top. It fulfills our risk management criteria i.e. at least R:R::1:1 or better.
Fundamental: BOC's Poloz had spoken in the last week. USD/CAD has already priced in bearish sentiment. I am not expecting anything new from Poloz tomorrow. So there is high probability of reaching the trade's target without any intervention by external factor, such as economic data and financial/political event.