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USD/CAD analysis | Nov 08, 2019

Fundamental:


About USD

Last US-NFP came to be 128K vs forecast 90K. Revision of previous NFP was also significantly positive, revised from 136K to 180K.

US-China trade deal has been making positive progress. Trump is trying his best to have a good deal ahead of 2020 US presidential election.

Hence, overall outlook seems positive.


About CAD

Last GDP release was 0.1% less than forecast. Probability of upcoming policy rate cut by BOC has Kept CAD restrained, CAD has lost against USD whereas other currencies like AUD, NZD and EUR had gained against USD in last week of Oct .

Today released employment data came to be -1.8K vs forecast 14.7K.

Hence, recent outlook seems negative.


Technical:

BC move made a small bullish gartley shown in yellow color, so CAD was moving up and broke high of Oct 30 (BOC statement day) right after today's release of employment data.

ABCD100.0 coincides with FIB78.6 of the whole swing down, which makes this area important. This is the next target of USD/CAD.


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