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USD/JPY | Sep 16, 2019

Updated: Nov 9, 2019

We are selling at 50% retracement of recent move down on H1.

Target 38.2% of whole swing up on daily time-frame.

Fundamentals: Recent bulls in USD/JPY was caused because US/China trade war tensions have recently been faded away a little. US and China have spoken to ease tariff war on export import between the two countries and are going to hold talks in October.

However, nothing concrete from US has been done yet, although China recently has exempted some goods from tariff increment.


Even if China and US are going to give a very positive outcome in October's meeting. JPY has enough room till then to retrace because bullish sentiment has already been priced in.

Note: JPY being a safe haven currency, gains because of rise in global tensions or chaos like US-China trade war. For example, recent attack on Saudi Oil Facilities is a global tension and JPY gained immediately. All JPY pairs opened way below their Friday's close.


Besides these factors, Let's look at analysis of Danske Bank:

BoJ On Hold Next Week; USD/JPY Still Likely To Decline Into 105 Before Year-End

"We expect the BoJ to keep its ‘QQE with yield curve control’ policy unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting ending on Thursday, 19 September. We remain rather cautious of such pricing and expect USD/JPY will continue to stay in a downward drift. We target 105 in 3M and still see substantial potential for going below that target," Danske says.


Nevertheless, we are not targeting 105.000 in USD/JPY unlike Danske.



3 comments

3 Comments


Keon Consultancy
Keon Consultancy
Sep 20, 2019

China is not as anxious to reach a deal as the US side thought


Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

Both China and the US should cherish the current talks. Many US officials easily misread China's goodwill, think it shows Beijing's weakness. China doesn't like talking tough before the negotiations, but I know China is not as anxious to reach a deal as the US side thought.


Tweets like this strengthen my idea that trader war between the US and China is not gonna stop in October, so JPY (safe haven currency) will gain again.


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Keon Consultancy
Keon Consultancy
Sep 16, 2019

re-entered

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Keon Consultancy
Keon Consultancy
Sep 16, 2019

Keon:

Sell limit had been triggered by the time I had finished this post. Tokyo session has started few minutes ago and USDJPY came back down again around opening price today. I set SL to BE point (Break Even Point is entry price or entry price ± few pips if broker's commission and swap have to be covered).

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