USD/JPY | Sep 16, 2019
Updated: Nov 9, 2019
We are selling at 50% retracement of recent move down on H1.
Target 38.2% of whole swing up on daily time-frame.
Fundamentals: Recent bulls in USD/JPY was caused because US/China trade war tensions have recently been faded away a little. US and China have spoken to ease tariff war on export import between the two countries and are going to hold talks in October.
However, nothing concrete from US has been done yet, although China recently has exempted some goods from tariff increment.
Even if China and US are going to give a very positive outcome in October's meeting. JPY has enough room till then to retrace because bullish sentiment has already been priced in.
Note: JPY being a safe haven currency, gains because of rise in global tensions or chaos like US-China trade war. For example, recent attack on Saudi Oil Facilities is a global tension and JPY gained immediately. All JPY pairs opened way below their Friday's close.
Besides these factors, Let's look at analysis of Danske Bank:
BoJ On Hold Next Week; USD/JPY Still Likely To Decline Into 105 Before Year-End
"We expect the BoJ to keep its ‘QQE with yield curve control’ policy unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting ending on Thursday, 19 September. We remain rather cautious of such pricing and expect USD/JPY will continue to stay in a downward drift. We target 105 in 3M and still see substantial potential for going below that target," Danske says.
Nevertheless, we are not targeting 105.000 in USD/JPY unlike Danske.