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Forum » Forex Fund Managers » Analysis and Discussions » Forex Analysis (Analysis with consensus of fundamentals and technicals)
Forex Analysis
samruddhiDate: Saturday, 01.Sep.2012, 1:14 AM | Message # 1
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Downward fast move is caused by a news: Spain Delays Bailout Decision
And EUR/USD reached significant Fibonacci level.
Conclusion : Movement is caused by fundamentals and target is determined by technicals.
About this chart pattern: Every move is precisely perfect to significant FIB levels.
AB is .50 of XA
BC is .786 of AB
ABCD is 1.272 and coinciding at .786 of XA.

 
samruddhiDate: Saturday, 01.Sep.2012, 3:17 AM | Message # 2
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Bullish harmonic pattern was accomplished at 30th August 2012. Look what happened on 31st August 2012 after this bullish harmonic pattern (bat or gartley) :

 
samruddhiDate: Saturday, 01.Sep.2012, 3:21 AM | Message # 3
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On same day 31st Aug 2012, Bullish BAT/Gartley of 1H chart helped it go up and accomplished butterfly. (To see that Bullish BAT/Gartley go to my previous post).
This butterfly at 4H is very harmonic. AB is only a little bit more than .786 of XA. BC is .786 of AB. ABCD 1.272 extension is coinciding at 1.272 FIB of XA in upside.
 
samruddhiDate: Saturday, 01.Sep.2012, 3:33 AM | Message # 4
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On 31st Aug 2012, Chairman of Federal Reserve USA, Mr Ben Bernake spoke at 10:00am NY time. Butterfly was already complete and we were looking for down move. Also Bernake didn't send any dovish signal for USD. So EUR/USD followed these technicals and statred down move.
Look what happened after butterfly ( This is the same butterfly which I had drawn on 4H and now I zoomed in it to 1H time frame) :

 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 04.Sep.2012, 11:26 PM | Message # 5
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Tuesday, 4th Sept 2012
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 04.Sep.2012, 11:30 PM | Message # 6
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Tuesday, 4th-sept-2012
 
samruddhiDate: Wednesday, 05.Sep.2012, 6:51 AM | Message # 7
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samruddhiDate: Wednesday, 05.Sep.2012, 2:12 PM | Message # 8
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E/U is at support now, 3:39 AM Ny time, 5th-Sept-2012
Let's see it goes up or breaks towards downside.
 
samruddhiDate: Wednesday, 05.Sep.2012, 2:57 PM | Message # 9
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Finance Minister Schäuble said, "no new plan for Greece"

And, see after break

 
samruddhiDate: Wednesday, 05.Sep.2012, 3:02 PM | Message # 10
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Next is what : 2480-2490 area.
2483 is weekly support1.
All European stocks indexes are declining.
Now is 4:31, At 5 am Ny time retail sales (EUR) will be released.
 
ECB Press ConferenceDate: Thursday, 06.Sep.2012, 7:59 PM | Message # 11
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DRAGHI SAID, "euro area economic growth is weak
and there is downside risk"
All expectation regarding GDP was negative, as he said.

he said, "we are in a situation that is bad equilibrium and very adverse scenario"

today ADP NFP from US came better
also unemploeyement is less
both news is good for USD
ANd draghi is negative for EUR
So down move is sure sure sure sure in e/u
And tomorrow , NFP will be released from USA

draghi said, " we already anticipated weak economic outlook, so we had decided to cut rate but left rate unchanged at .75% because it was not good time to cute rate of council decision"

Draghi answered, "bond market is distorted in euro area"

Added (06.Sep.2012, 7:59 PM)
---------------------------------------------
He said, "credit flows are sluggish for several reasons"
 
samruddhiDate: Saturday, 08.Sep.2012, 1:15 AM | Message # 12
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Today NFP is not tradable, beacuse data are conflicting .
Unemployment Rate come at 8.1% , forecast was 8.3%. It's good news for USD
But at a same time, Employment Change came at 96K, forecasr was 123K. It's bad for USD.
So today i am not trading NFP beacuse these news are conflicting with each other.
 
toogCeatnemiaDate: Monday, 10.Sep.2012, 7:40 AM | Message # 13
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CFVddtsuvQQmTB,
 
ObersotWeesDate: Tuesday, 11.Sep.2012, 8:45 AM | Message # 14
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iaWBEHV********************Advertisement is not allowed.
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 6:57 AM | Message # 15
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samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 11:37 AM | Message # 16
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Daily trend turned bearish (confirmed) and no stop grabber (no failure in trend shifting)
Market may reach 50% fib support because that is area of 200 SMA and oversold at D1 timeframe.
So there is no hurdle for eur/usd till that area.
Also see my last post to understand completely what I'm saying.
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 11:49 AM | Message # 17
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What I see at 1H time frame.
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 11:55 AM | Message # 18
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wow very good bearish move now at this 1H candle ( time 1:21 AM NY) is gonna be significant bearish candle. It will cause the crossover and I'll enter short at 2 AM Ny time. Min target is 2850(bid price) despite of all supports are below it near 2820 area.
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 12:02 PM | Message # 19
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Conservative entry will be done after close of current 1H candle , i mean to enter conservatively at 2 AM Ny time.
But move was good and crossover was imminent So look at my aggressive entry .

And also I will be looking for conservative entry after close of current candle (time now is 1:25 AM Ny time)
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 12:58 PM | Message # 20
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After aggressive entry . I had said to take an conservative entry.
I took my conservative entry at 29047 at 2:07 AM (just after 7 min) . I wait for 7 minutes and got better price.
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 2:16 PM | Message # 21
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Nice ABCD in formation.
BC is .786 of AB
and I'm expecting ABC-D 1.272
 
samruddhiDate: Tuesday, 25.Sep.2012, 10:29 PM | Message # 22
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EUR/USD has gone above C point so this ABCD is no longer valid .
I already exited my sell trades , one for some profit and other one for zero profit.
Actually e/u consolidated at 2900 area for five hours so i exited trades there. And then e/u broke upside out of consolidation and went up.



I will be looking for opportunity to short unless it breaks above 3050.
This chart is clearly showing LOWER PEAKS AND LOWER DIPS = downtrend at 1H
LOWER PEAKS and LOWER DIPS will be invalid if it breaks above 3050 Then i will change my bias for 1H timeframe. And also i will look at D1 and 4H timeframe for further analysis.

Still I'm looking for 50% fib support at daily time frame. Bearish bias is still intact. I may re-enter sell if market will give me opportunity to do so .
 
samruddhiDate: Wednesday, 26.Sep.2012, 0:03 AM | Message # 23
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Look at this pattern:
AB : B is between .786 and .886 of XA
BC : it is .618 of AB
" ABCD 1.618" & "FIB 1.618 of XA IN DOWNSIDE" area is 6060-73
Let's see if D stops at " FIB 1.272 of XA IN DOWNSIDE" or ....go to 6060-73



GBP/USD followed dowward direction to accomplish butterfly but went only to ABCD100% and then moved up. ABCD 100% was at 6139 and g/u went down tyo make a low at 61365 wich is only a few pip below 6139.
 
samruddhiDate: Friday, 28.Sep.2012, 3:13 PM | Message # 24
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Last upswing at daily timeframe was so fast that i had not touched 3/3 MA. Then e/u retraced downside to confluence support and again started upside move. bread and butter (in this condition) : e/u may go up to .618 FIB of lat downswing AB. It usually happens due to previous fast momentum.

 
samruddhiDate: Friday, 28.Sep.2012, 3:15 PM | Message # 25
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