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Buy AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY | Nov 05, 2019

Fundamental:


About JPY: The most traded JPY pair (USD/JPY) has been recovering since last of Aug as US-China trade war has been being subdued. A short down move occurred between Sept 19 and Oct 3 but it was just a ABCD↓ pullback, then the pair continued moving up. Recent negative news about US-China trade deal caused a sharp fall in JPY pairs on Oct 31 but the pairs soon started recovery as positive news (ref1, ref2, ref3) about the same came on Nov 1.

Today's news about US tariff on China and probability of BOJ's action (ref1, ref2) helped the pair to gain a bit more, and it has almost erased fall of Oct 31.


About AUD: AUD/USD changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. RBA didn't seem as dovish as many analysts expected, although economic data from Australia in last one month was mixed with most of them being bearish (ref1, ref2). AUD seems to be a proxy currency of China in most of the cases, positive China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI helped AUD to gain.


About NZD: NZD/USD also changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. Positive ANZ business confidence and change in Westpac view about NZ interest rate also helped the currency. Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke.


Technical:


If you have read my previous analysis of AUD and NZD, you know that I've been in bullish side. USD/JPY has been bullish too at the same time, which makes a perfect scenario to go long in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.


Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke. Then today's news about US tariff on China made an engulfing bullish candle on H1 and I entered buy. At the same time, engulfing bullish candle in AUD was made too and I entered buy in AUD/JPY too. I was not expecting RBA to be as dovish in upcoming RBA statement today, so there was no contradiction to my bullish view.





These fundamental and technical factors are sufficient to make both pairs penetrate/touch their previous swing highs.

Risk: This setup (in both pairs) will fail if H1 candle closes below low of engulfing candle.

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